Prime Playbook
May 11, 2025 Volume 137 "Mother's Day Edition"
Superhero Day!
Happy Mother’s Day to all the Mom’s who are reading PRIME PICK$ today. We all were brought in to this world by our Mom, and they are the real superheroes on an every day basis. Please take the time today to reach out to your Mom and send love and thanks for raising you!
We have another wild week on deck, along with OPEX this Friday. Last week we saw Jerome Powell emphasize that the FED is not cutting until there is a clear plan from Trump. We then saw Trump & Co. try and throw every make up piece of news possible at the market to keep it up. And as usual you find out the news is fake (like the UK deal that doesn’t exist!), and they start the next round of “hey look over here” tweets and media interviews.
Bessent is out today, along with Trump, claiming great progress in the China negotiations, and they will share details tomorrow. That right there is an immediate red flag to me, as it has been all along. This administration RACES to put out whatever “good” news they can come up with. If they had ANYTHING of significance to report, they would not need until tomorrow to write the narrative.
HOWEVER, the market seems to keep taking the bait. Keep in mind that “Liberation Day” was April 2. We were told “90 deals in 90 days”. It has been 39 days and there is not a single deal in place. I approach this week cautiously as I have been the last few weeks. I don’t believe the market can keep moving upwards without actual, factual, confirmed positive economic news.
But my thoughts are not how we trade. We trade off of charts, setups, and levels. Not “word salads”. We have another week packed with earnings, although they have had little impact on the market this quarter, instead being driven by news. Last week Trump also promised some “massive surprise” that he would share on “Thursday, Friday, or maybe Monday” before leaving for Saudi Arabia. We’ll see if there is any “major surprise” tomorrow…but don’t hold your breath!
We also have inflation and CPI numbers Tuesday, along with Powell talking Thursday before market open. It is going to be a WILD week!
The Stack is loaded with charts, trade ideas, calendars, and Bonus Picks as always. Let’s get to the details for the upcoming week!
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My Charts
Over Green line = Entry for Calls
Under Red line = Entry for Puts
Dash/Dot Blue line = Price Targets
Orange Dash/Dot line = POC (Point Of Control)
Purple line = Dark Pool
Blue Boxes = Demand Zones
Red Boxes = Supply Zones
Price targets are not the same as option strikes.
Price targets are where I believe the chart can/will go.
The strikes I suggest are what I think provide the best risk/reward to make money.
Let’s BANK!
MARA
MARA 0.00%↑ daily with an inverse head & shoulders look to it heading in to Monday. Crypto has been hot, and there is a rumor floating this weekend that META may be adding crypto support to Facebook. This is one to keep an eye on. Cons are cheap and can run hard. Here’s the plan.
Calls over $16.35
17c & 17.5c on watch
PRIME STYLE: 5/23 19c
Puts under $15.50
15p & 14.5p on watch to the downside
DNUT
DNUT 0.00%↑ weekly bull flag setup is one that I am drooling over. This was trading over $10 to start the year. It is now under $3! But that drop has given us this retest of the lower trendline. Shares are cheap here, so that is on the table. I also have some long range ultra cheap ideas to consider.
Calls over $3.00
7/18 5c on watch
12/19 7.5c on watch
(both of these closed at .05 Friday…a push up on this name can see 10x-20x returns)
Puts under $2.60
2.5p on watch here
LMND
LMND 0.00%↑ weekly consolidating in this pennant formation. Closed the week rejecting the upper trendline, so the setup for this week is simple. We either push back up to try and break out of the trendline or we flush back lower and see if the lower trendline holds as support.
Calls over $31.50
32c & 33c on watch here
Puts under $30.00
29.5p & 29p on watch
SOFI
SOFI 0.00%↑ weekly bull flag looks juicy, and it’s another name with ultra cheap cons! Closing right underneath the upper trendline on Friday, we will look for continuation higher to break the trendline. Failure to breakout will see us head back towards the 11 area.
Calls over $13.50
14c & 14.5c on watch here
PRIME STYLE: 5/23 15c
Puts under $12.70
12.5p & 12p on watch
PRIME STYLE: 5/23 11p
MRK
MRK 0.00%↑ monthly falling wedge in to demand. One of my favorite chart setups. We can see major moves on a bounce from this area. Trump put out a tweet on Saturday with 8 companies listed on it, and MRK was one of them. No idea the intent of the tweet, but when he talks specific names it brings interest. Here’s the plan.
Calls over $77.00
79c & 80c on watch here
PRIME STYLE: 5/23 85c
Puts under $75.50
74p & 73p on watch
ORCL
ORCL 0.00%↑ weekly bull flag (yeah, that pattern is everywhere this week), closing below upper trendline, so you should know the drill by now. Breakout and go, or reject and flush. Here’s the plan.
Calls over $153.25
155c & 157.5c on watch here
PRIME STYLE: 160c
Puts under $149.00
146p & 145p on watch
(Weekly expirations unless otherwise noted)
ARM
120c over $116.00 / 110p under $114.75
MU
90c over $86.50 / 80p under $84.75
AAPL
205c over $199.50 / 192.5p under $198.00
TSM
185c over $177.50 / 170p under $176.50
DIS
110c over $106.25 / 102p under $105.50
MRVL
64c over $60.00 / 55p under $59.00
UPST
50c over $47.50 / 44p under $46.50
Earnings Calendar
Economic Calendar
