Prime Playbook
June 15, 2025 Volume 147 "Father's Day Edition"
Father’s Day, FOMC, and Fireworks Ahead
It’s Father’s Day. I want to take a moment to shout out my respect for the ones who show up, provide stability, and keep things from falling apart. Speaking of father figures, this week the markets will be watching Daddy Powell like a hawk (while hoping he’s a dove!). The FOMC meeting lands midweek, and traders everywhere will be hanging on every word, looking for clues, confirmations, or cracks in the Fed's tone.
This end of the week will be very difficult to trade, as the market will be closed this Thursday, for Juneteenth, before opening back up on Friday.
So Wednesday afternoon will be taken over by Powell, and that will roll in to Thursday being closed - please pay attention to swings/expirations/theta decay this week!
But that’s not the only pressure point. Over the weekend, Israel and Iran exchanged continued missile fire, escalating geopolitical risk right as we roll into a week already packed with catalysts. Volatility will be front and center. The VIX is likely to stay elevated, and options premiums are already reacting. This isn’t the kind of week to coast or trade on autopilot.
On top of that, we’ve got quarterly OPEX coming in hot—big flows, sharp rotations, and the potential for wild intraday swings as positions unwind or roll. This is the kind of environment that either pays you well for being prepared or punishes you for being sloppy.
Stay nimble. Stay aware. This is a big week, and the market isn’t in the mood for mistakes.
Jam packed edition tonight. Let’s get to the good stuff!
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My Charts
Over Green line = Entry for Calls
Under Red line = Entry for Puts
Dash/Dot Blue line = Price Targets
Orange Dash/Dot line = POC (Point Of Control)
Purple line = Dark Pool
Blue Boxes = Demand Zones
Red Boxes = Supply Zones
Price targets are not the same as option strikes.
Price targets are where I believe the chart can/will go.
The strikes I suggest are what I think provide the best risk/reward to make money.
Let’s BANK!
HD
HD 0.00%↑ daily rising channel (bear flag) setup for a very easy look to start tonight’s stack. This closed testing the lower trendline on Friday, we will look for a bounce from here to get in to calls, or a breakdown of the trendline for puts. Here’s my plan.
Calls over $357.00
360c & 362.5c on watch
PRIME STYLE: 365c
Puts under $353.00
347.5p & 345p on watch for puts
PRIME STYLE: 340p
ZIM
ZIM 0.00%↑ daily consolidating wedge formation. I really like this setup as the premiums will still be quite affordable in a sea of elevated premiums this week. Tight entries on this is what I’m looking at as we are at an inflection point, and the Middle East volatility will definitely put eyes on this name.
Calls over $17.75
18c & 18.5c on watch here
PRIME STYLE: 6/27 20c
Puts under $17.00
16.5p & 16p on watch here
UPST
UPST 0.00%↑ daily rising channel (bear flag) with the inverted hammer candle on Friday. This could be a sneaky runner this week as she is flush in the middle of this range. Buyers will look to protect $48.00 on the downside. Over $56.00 this really can start moving. Here’s the plan.
Calls over $53.00
55c & 56c on watch here
PRIME STYLE: 6/27 62c
Puts under $51.50
50p & 49p on watch
CVX
CVX 0.00%↑ is one of several oil names that will have a lot of attention, again because of the Middle East conflict. The daily broke the trendline Friday, before pulling back to end the day. The setup here is to hold over the trendline and attack the gap(s) above. Losing the trendline support can flush this back towards the POC.
Calls over $146.50
150c & 152.5c on watch here
PRIME STYLE: 6/27 160c
Puts under $144.50
143p & 142p on watch
NVO
NVO 0.00%↑ weekly bull flag with lots of room above to run. Increasing buyer volume the last 3 weeks, this is one to keep on watch. Simple setup: reject the trendline and flush lower you go puts, or breakout you can look at calls.
Calls over $81.75
82c & 83c on watch here
PRIME STYLE: 85c
Puts under $79.50
78p & 77p on watch
RTX
RTX 0.00%↑ daily with the breakaway hammer candle at all time high - this could keep going, as this is a contract defense name and, say it together, “Middle East conflict”. This sector will have more volume than usual this week, so here’s what I’m looking at.
Calls over $146.05
148c & 149c on watch here
PRIME STYLE: 155c
Puts under $144.00
143p & 142p on watch
(Weekly expirations unless otherwise noted)
WMT
97c over $95.00 / 92.5p under $94.00
SMCI
43.5c over $42.25 / 40p under $41.25
V
360c over $354.50 / 340p under $353.00
AMZN
220c over $212.00 / 202.5p under $210.50
KO
72c over $71.20 / 70p under $70.75
KR
67c over $65.75 / 62.5p under $65.00
TEM
75c over $72.50 / 66p under $70.00
Earnings Calendar
Economic Calendar
