PRIME PICK$
March 29, 2026 Volume 225 "Endless Carnage Edition"
This Is Ugly AF, But At Least It’s A 4 Day Week?
There does not seem to be any sort of “de-escalation” or even “10 Day Pause” going on in the Middle East once again this weekend. Despite Trump throwing multiple TACO extensions of “pausing” from 48 hours to 5 days to 10 days last week, it should be no surprise that it is total bullshit, same as last weekend. And the war has only intensified over the past 48 hours.
Saudi Arabia Base Attack: At least 12 to 15 U.S. service members were wounded in an Iranian missile and drone strike on Prince Sultan Air Base. Two of these injuries were reported as serious, while many others involved traumatic brain injuries from the missile blasts.
Airstrikes in Tehran: Israeli airstrikes heavily bombarded Tehran on Saturday, hitting university buildings and residential zones. Strikes also targeted an industrial complex in the south, causing widespread power outages.
Houthi Entry: Yemen’s Houthi rebels officially entered the conflict this weekend, launching their first missile attack on Israel and vowing further strikes against Red Sea shipping.
U.S. Troop Buildup: A U.S. Navy ship carrying 3,500 sailors and Marines arrived in the Middle East as the Pentagon prepares for a potential ground incursion. Iran has stated its forces are “waiting” for any such invasion. Oil prices are up another 3% in early Sunday afternoon trading.
Strike in Lebanon: An Israeli strike in southern Lebanon killed three journalists on Saturday, including a reporter for the Hezbollah-affiliated Al Manar TV.
Futures opened down another -50 points to open the overnight session today, and that could mean more downside ahead this week. Since we regularly work with SPY in the Live Chat, let’s take a look at that chart. We are firmly entrenched in a down trend at this point, and the gap down on futures tonight puts this roughly at $628. If there is any chance for upside they bulls will need to quickly reclaim over $630 with volume, but I would still lean short on any extended time frame at this point until this reclaims over the $644 level. If we are unable to reclaim over $630 it opens up a move to retest prior lows at $618 and $611, with a gap to $600 as a likely temporary low. With this being a 4 day week (we are closed this Friday), I don’t know that we will see that move happen immediately. JPM will also roll their quarterly collar on Tuesday which could influence immediate direction.
So what should you do tomorrow and this week?
Oil is the “king of the castle” at the moment, so you need to keep an eye on that and look back at the XOM charts I’ve posted and provided recently as there is still more room to run as long as the war is still going.
Like I said last week: Know YOUR plan.
Not my plan. Not what is written in here. What YOU are going to do. When the headline drops and the market pulls back violently. Or it unexpectedly rips up with you loaded with puts. What is the profit taking strategy (don’t get complacent in this environment, take the money). What is the exit strategy? Identify the plan ahead of time to avoid the stress in real time.
Use the volume profile. Identify where the high volume areas are. Those are going to be places that you will find it harder for price to move through versus lower volume areas.
Don’t fight the waves. Don’t try to get cute. There aren’t many things going UP right now in the longer time frames, so if you are trading calls be strategic and take your money or your loss fast. If you are trading puts don’t get greedy, things will bounce, stops will get triggered if you over stay your welcome.
Get familiar with the POC for intraday trading. You always see it on my charts. Price will gravitate there.
I wrote more extensively about the historical comparison of 1973 to the situation we are in now if you would like to expand your knowledge base and learn more about where this could be headed both now and in the future.
